USDA released their long-awaited monthly grain supply and
demand projections today after cancelling last month’s report due to the
partial federal government shutdown. Projections are considered mostly
friendly to soybeans and corn and neutral to wheat. Highlights below:
USDA’s S&D Projections for MY
2013/14 for BARLEY – Nov. 8 – USDA made only a couple minor tweaks to the
U.S. barley balance sheet this month… they cut U.S. production by 3 million bu
to 215 million bu, based on slightly lower harvested acreage, and cut ending
stocks by an equal amount to 80 million bu. The average farm gate price
for U.S. barley was tightened to $5.65-$6.35. World barley production was
cut by .288 MMT this month to 141.7 MMT, up 9% from last year, with Russian
production cut by 1 MMT, European production increased by 1 MMT and Canadian
production increased by .45 MMT. World ending stocks were increased by .4 MMT
to 22.8 MMT, up 12% from last year.
USDA’s S&D Projections for MY
2013/14 for WHEAT – Nov. 8 - USDA raised 2013
wheat production this month by 13 million bu to 2.13 billion bu, based on a
slightly higher average yield of 47.2 bpa. increased imports by 10 million bu to
150 million bu, cut food use by 8 million bu to 950 million bu and raised feed
use by 30 million bu to 310 million bu. This resulted in a modest 4
million bu increase in wheat ending stock to 565 million, ABOVE the average
pre-report trade estimate of 519 million bu. The average farm
gate price for U.S. wheat was narrowed to $6.70-$7.30/bu. World wheat
production was cut by 2.5 MMT this month to 706.4 MMT, up 8% from last
year, led by bigger crops in Canada and the EU. USDA cut
Argentine production by 1 MMT to 11 MMT. World wheat ending stocks were
increased by 2 MMT to 178.5 MMT, up nearly 2% from last year.
USDA’s S&D Projections for MY
2013/14 for CORN – Nov. 8 – USDA raised beginning stocks by 163
million bu to 824 million bu, based on slightly lower feed usage (-142
million), ethanol (-17 million bu) and exports (-4 million bu) at the end of MY
2012/13 which ended August 31. For new crop, USDA pegged the 2013
output at 13.989 billion bu, 146 million bu ABOVE their September estimate but
mostly in line with pre-report trade estimates of 14.003 billion bu.
Harvested acres were cut by nearly 2 million acres to 87.2 million while
average corn yields were bumped from 155.3 bpa to 160.4 bpa. The average
pre-report trade estimates were 88.097 million and 159 bpa. USDA also
turned somewhat bullish on the demand side, hiking feed usage by 100 million bu
and exports by 175 million bu. This resulted in a modest 32 million bu
increase in ending stocks to 1.887 billion bu, BELOW the pre-report trade
estimate of 2.029 billion bu. The average farm gate price for U.S. corn was
adjusted downward to $4.10-$4.90/bu. World corn production was increased
by nearly 6 MMT to a new record 962.8 MMT, up 12% from last year, while
world corn ending stocks were increased by nearly 13 MMT this month to 164.3
MMT, up 22% from last year.
Kelly L Olson, Administrator
Idaho Barley Commission
208-334-2090
Fax: 208-334-2335
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